【明報專訊】各國封關超過一年後，不少國家開始通關，越南早前通關，計劃與病毒共存，市場預計2021年底越南GDP有機會達5000億美元。在世界經濟復蘇的背景下，越南經濟增長將獲助力。主要經濟體與越南簽署了各項自貿協定之時，作為開放度大的經濟體，2021年底及後續幾年越南肯定將在投資資金流、市場拓展機會及樓價等方面上獲得正面評價，該國兩大城巿胡志明巿和河內巿的住宅樓價在疫情下反破頂，投資者開始留意其他樓價較廉宜城巿如峴港的機會。

2021年上半年越南進出口總額達3167.3億美元，同比增長32.2%，其中出口額為1576.3億美元，同比增長28.4%，進口額為1591億美元，同比增長36.1%。世界銀行預測，2021年越南GDP增長率為6.6%，為東盟各國最高水平。越南力爭實現2021年全年GDP增長率為6%，2021年後幾個月為7%以上的目標。。

越南統計總局的最新評估結果顯示，2020年越南經濟規模約達3430億美元，人均GDP為3521美元。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）認為，以購買力進行計算的話，2020年越南經濟規模達1.05萬億美元，人均GDP達1萬美元以上。

胡志明市第一郡樓價按年升6.8%

Golden Emperor執行董事及合伙人任亦行表示，在疫情中，越南股市及樓市表現秀麗，不少資金留在內循環，令胡志明市第一郡樓價按年升近6.8%。早前越南樓市受惠於中美貿易戰，再加上不少全球頂尖的企業將生產線由中國遷至越南以分散風險，帶動該國的經濟於疫情下仍然錄得不俗增長，而中產人口冉冉上升，刺激優質住宅需求，河內及胡志明市樓價逆市「破頂」。

任亦行稱：「越南今年樓市如香港一般未有受到疫情影響，反而逆市向好，最熱門的兩大城市河內及胡志明市，市中心的樓價相繼破頂，發展商的開價亦非常進取，以胡志明市為例，第1郡金融區及第2郡新核心商業區現時豪宅新盤呎價已高達1萬港元，但依然火速沽清。」

峴港計劃2030年成智慧城市

除了上述兩大城巿，也漸多人留意越南中部的第四大城巿峴港市，該巿在過去5年中一直保持較高的經濟增長速度，預計到2030年將繼續以5％的平均速度增長。峴港的遊客平均每年增長20％，對酒店、度假村和設施的需求持續增長。另外，峴港已經批准了2018至2025年智慧城市發展計劃，並預計到2030年該市將達到智慧城市的地位，可看好峴港對酒店、公寓等住房高度需求，據峴港市建設局副局長表示，該市的房地產業發展迅速，峴港有50多個房地產項目正在建設中，擁有5萬多套公寓，頂樓公寓和別墅，以及諸如公寓式酒店、住房辦公樓和商店等多種項目。

第一太平戴維斯越南發表報告指出，當前外國人對越南房地產的需求主要集中在大城市，例如河內與胡志明市等大都會。最近，當地很多樓花的銷情亦不錯，有樓盤在推出初期，外國人的配額已售罄。不僅如此，近來外籍買家也把目標轉向如峴港、芽莊、或廣寧等省市。

仲量聯行（JLL）發表報告指由於中產階級的興起，越南住宅需求呈現穩定成長態勢，預計越南住房市場將保持穩定增長。其中不少具實力的投資者對現樓較偏好，未來幾年，越南市場對中價公寓的需求仍然很高，因為其供應有限。

發展商：外資設廠 刺激住宅需求

峴港位處於越南最中心的沿海地段，乘飛機到河內或胡志明市兩大主要城市均只需約1時10分鐘，而前往香港約2小時航程，峴港的三大產業，包括旅遊業、製造業及船運業。發展商Filmore集團主席Danny Nguyen表示：「峴港的三大產業推動經濟之餘，亦帶動人均收入增加，令中產人口近年不斷上升。再加上不少外資於當地設廠，如LG及Fujikin等亦在峴港設立研發基地或生產線，外籍僱員大增，刺激峴港市中心優質住宅的需求。」

Golden Emperor首席執官賴遠方說：「峴港未來將會有不少大型基建，最矚目的是計劃中的峴港至海安鐵路，耗資金額達20億美元，現在處於工程招標階段，通車後將會鞏固峴港為中部交通樞紐的重要地位，吸引更多旅客及外資。」

Filmore現推出峴港新樓盤The Filmore Da Nang，由Golden Emperor、Asia Bankers Club及Ashton Hawks合作代理，定價由220萬港元起，單位面積由484方呎起。

環球樓市．明報記者 龍彩霞

[龍彩霞 海外置業錦囊]

Asia Bankers Club founder and chief executive Kingston Lai sees future potential in property markets in Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, New York City, Manchester – but he has reservations about London and cities in Australia.

In addition to the investment club targeting bankers and professionals, Lai also controls Ashton Hawks and Golden Emperor Properties, which aim at high net worth individuals and retail investors, respectively, for overseas real estate.

Amid a number of uncertainties, Lai reckons real estate buyers need to think twice. “But the more uncertainty people see from the trade war, the more they are interested in properties in Vietnam, where more manufacturers are expected to move from China.” He says a recent project in HCMC received an overwhelming response.

“Even if the Hong Kong property market were to fall, would flats now valued at HK$10 million plunge to HK$5 million? However, two-room apartments sized between 700 and 1,000 square feet in district 2 and 4 in HCMC cost around HK$2 million and they have the potential to rise further.”

He compares these areas to Sheung Wan, close to the central business district. Apartments further away from the CBD cost around HK$1.2 million only.

Property prices in HCMC have risen on average 15 percent a year over the past three years, compared with as much as 30 percent a year in Bangkok several years ago, says Lai. On average, there is 8 percent gross rental yield in HCMC, he says.

District 1 is the traditional CBD and district 3 is where many embassies and historical buildings are located. Investors have been looking at districts 2 and 4. Last month, the HCMC administration decided that no high-rise apartment projects in districts 1 and 3 will be approved until 2020. Lai expects supply to be even tighter.

He is also bullish on the property market in Hanoi, where Samsung, Apple and Microsoft have invested. The World Bank projected GDP growth in Vietnam to be 6.8 percent in 2018 and 6.5 percent in 2019.

Although Koreans and Japanese are the top foreign investors in Vietnam, Lai says they are not keen on buying properties, unlike Hong Kong and mainland Chinese, who can rent the flats to them. “You can compare HCMC and Hanoi with Shanghai and Beijing, respectively, but we are yet to find a Shenzhen in Vietnam,” Lai says.

Overseas people can buy property in Vietnam and sell or lease it to locals and foreigners. A 50-year leasehold ownership will be given to foreigners with renewal possibility.

When buying a property in Vietnam, investors are subject to 0.5 percent stamp duty. For rental income, they are subject to about 10 percent income tax. If they want to sell the property, 2 percent personal income tax of the selling price will be charged.

Foreigners need to have a bank account in Vietnam and need to sign the sales agreement in person. Mortgages are not available. He says the firm has helped a client to gain about 16 percent to buy and sell a property in Vietnam within a year.

Lai, a Malaysian Chinese, says it takes time to assess the political situation back home. He adds that properties in Singapore are too expensive to buy.

Investors in Thailand property should be cautious. Lai says that a studio in Bangkok near a metro station costs between HK$1 million and HK$2 million, while those costing only HK$500,000 may be in very remote areas that will be difficult to sell or rent out.

As for developed markets, Lai sees potential in New York City.

Sellers have been cutting prices there with less demand due to a tax reform that changes the mortgage interest and property tax deduction, making home ownership less attractive.

While this also applies to foreigners, Lai says some Hong Kong buyers note that the US-HK dollar peg minimizes currency risk. They expect long-term capital gain in New York City center, where there is continuing redevelopment and population growth.

Despite the interest among locals for London homes, Lai is cautious in the wake of Brexit and the high costs of investing there. He sees more potential in Manchester, which he believes could be a future London, Liverpool and Birmingham.

In Australia, Lai says banks will only provide construction financing to developers if they have sold a substantial amount of an uncompleted project. He worries some developers may struggle.

He also sees potential in Japanese real estate but the company does not have expertise there. “We only sell projects that we can manage. We sell about 1,000 units a year. We try our best to ensure customers’ properties are well-managed and can be rented out,” he says. “Selling projects by major developers is one of the ways in which we have peace of mind.”

He and his team carry out due diligence and even buy properties themselves to experience the process. Six months were spent studying the property market in Vietnam before identifying projects.

Ashton Hawks and Golden Emperor Properties serve clients with different needs.

“If you tell me HK$1 million cash is all that you have, I won’t tell you to place it all into a property in Vietnam.

“Instead, we have helped a retired customer to spend HK$500,000 to buy a condo in Thailand for his own use and the rest for his spending.

“Customers like bankers may bet on some properties in Southeast Asia and at the same time invest in London, or New York City, for long-term stable growth.”

Source: The Standard